⚾ Dodgers vs. Mets Props, Picks & Best Bets – Sunday Night Baseball (May 25, 2025)

MLB Player Props | Sunday, May 25 • First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET • Citi Field

Featured AI Prop Picks:

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (-106 at Caesars)
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133 at Caesars)
Will Smith Over 0.5 Walks (+104 at Caesars)

🔍 Game Overview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets square off under the Sunday Night Baseball lights with a series win on the line. Our model zeroes in on a few key player prop values as both lineups feature MVP-caliber bats and exploitable pitching matchups.

🔴 Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases (-106)

Alonso is due. The Mets slugger is stuck in a mini 6-game drought without an extra-base hit — but that’s precisely why this is the perfect bounce-back spot. He draws Dodgers rookie Landon Knack, who ranks in the 3rd percentile in average exit velocity and has given up 2+ HRs in each of his last two starts.

Alonso crushes righties (.301 AVG / .541 SLG) and ranks in the 97th percentile or better in xSLG, hard-hit rate, and bat speed. Knack’s weakness lines up perfectly with Alonso’s power zones, especially toward Citi Field’s short LF fence.

Pro Picks AI: Back Alonso to break out with a multi-base game. A double or homer is highly in play here.

🔵 Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+133)

Freeman is hitless in the series, but don’t be fooled. Most of his at-bats have come against lefties, where he’s struggled. He now draws Kodai Senga, a righty with extreme platoon splits — and that’s good news for Freddie, who’s slashing .367/.441/.679 vs RHP this season.

In May, Freeman is batting .378 with 11 extra-base hits and owns a 12.5% barrel rate — his highest since 2020. Citi Field’s LF wall works in his favor given his pull and oppo-fly tendencies.

Pro Picks AI: Buy the dip. Freeman should rebound with a multi-hit night, and the +133 price is strong value.

⚪ Will Smith Over 0.5 Walks (+104)

Smith leads the Dodgers with a 17.9% walk rate (99th percentile). He’s walked in 4 straight games and 6 times total during that span. He’s locked in at the plate and pitchers are adjusting — trying to pitch around him.

Senga has a walk problem, ranking in the bottom 25% of the league. He’s issued 13 walks over his last four starts, and he’s especially wild with the bases empty — where Smith often hits.

Pro Picks AI: We expect Senga to be careful with Smith. +104 for a walk is excellent value for a guy walking nearly once every 4 PAs.

🎯 Pro Picks AI Same Game Parlay

Will Smith Over 0.5 Walks
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 Total Bases
Payout: +625 (via Caesars SGP)

📺 How to Watch

Location: Citi Field – Queens, NY
Date: Sunday, May 25, 2025
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
TV: ESPN (Sunday Night Baseball)

💥 Promo Spotlight: Caesars Sportsbook

🧠 Final Thought

Sunday night’s matchup features a star-studded lineup of bats and exploitable pitching. With Senga’s shaky control and Knack’s hard-hit vulnerability, tonight’s value sits with plate discipline and slugging matchups. Pete Alonso is primed to break out, and Freeman’s reverse splits make him a quiet XBH threat.

Pro Picks AI Model Confidence: ✅ Smith Walks | ✅ Alonso TB | ✅ Freeman TB